Although various factors were blamed for the extended power outage on the ERCOT electricity grid in February 2021, no single problem fully explains the calamity. All forms of generation experienced capacity deratings, but failure to identify and address risks along fuel supply chains was a major contributor. Moreover, most proposed remedies do not fundamentally address…
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Are energy performance certificates a strong predictor of actual energy use? Evidence from high-frequency thermostat panel data
This paper examines the extent with which Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) reflect observed energy used for heating. We use high-frequency smart thermostat panel data in combination with building characteristics and hourly weather information. We exploit variations in boiler operation in the neighborhood of a steady state indoor temperature to elicit the predictive power of an…
Evaluation of the Winter Pollution Mitigation Policy in China
Rapid industrialization in China has come with substantial increases in local air pollution. This paper quantifies the health benefits of the Winter Pollution Mitigation Policy of 2017. We estimate that this policy caused an 18% reduction in fine particulate concentration levels, resulting in 19,400 deaths avoided in 2017 due to pollution exposure in Beijing, Tianjin,…
Beyond the inverted U-shape: Challenging the long-term relationship of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis
This paper empirically tests the validity of the postulated Environmental Kuznets Curve for a panel of 69 countries from 1971 to 2014 which are clustered into all-, high-, middle-, and lower-income groupings. Since the quadratic EKC specification between carbon dioxide emissions and GDP produces highly biased results in favour of an inverted U-shaped pattern, we…
Resource Adequacy with Increasing Shares of Wind and Solar Power: A Comparison of European and U.S. Electricity Market Designs
We raise the question if improvements to current energy-only markets are sufficient to maintain resource adequacy in electricity markets or whether the rapid increase in wind and solar power gives stronger arguments for additional capacity mechanisms. A comparative analysis between Europe and the United States reveals some fundamental differences, but also many similarities in electricity…
OPEC’s Pursuit of Market Stability
We investigate attempts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stabilize the price of oil during the past fifty years. We first develop a novel decomposition of shifts in global demand and non-OPEC supply. This decomposition provides a fresh perspective on the debate over the relative importance of demand versus supply factors as…
The Cost of Finance and the Cost of Carbon: A Case Study of Britain’s only PWR
This paper argues that the cost of decarbonising depends critically on the Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC), illustrated with a case study of Sizewell B (SZB, the nuclear station commissioned in 1995). It calculates the cost per tonne of CO2 abated with prices set as for transmission assets by the regulator under the Regulatory…
Biomethane for Electricity in Mexico: A Prospective Economic Analysis
Facilitating Transmission Expansion to Support Efficient Decarbonization of the Electricity Sector
Many governments, electric utilities, and large electricity consumers have committed to deep decarbonization of the electricity sector by 2050 or earlier. Over at least the next 30 years, achieving decarbonization targets will require replacing most fossil-fueled generators with zero carbon wind and solar generation along with energy storage to manage intermittency and for balancing more…
Fossil Natural Gas Exit – A New Narrative for the European Energy Transformation Towards Decarbonization
This paper discusses the potential role of fossil natural gas in the process of the energy transformation in Europe on its way to decarbonization. Mainstream conventional wisdom has it that natural gas, perhaps in combination with other gases, should maintain an important role in the energy mix, first, as a “bridge fuel”, and then through…