In this paper we explore the development of two specific carbon capture technologies, namely Carbon Capture, Transport, and Storage (CCTS) and Direct Air Capture (DAC) with respect to the role attributed to them by long-term climate scenarios. We ask whether the critical assessment in earlier literature of the gap between ambitious targets in top-down energy and climate models and the modest level of real-world implementation still persists. We provide a survey of the full set of projects on CCTS in the energy and industry sectors, as well as of all DAC projects world-wide. For CCTS, we find that although several demonstration projects have been implemented over the past 15 years, the scale of deployment remains low. In the power sector, only a few large-scale projects remain operational as of 2025; others have been delayed or cancelled. Industrial CCTS shows broader engagement, yet most projects remain below the 1 MtCO2 /year threshold. The deployment of DAC, too, has remained at very low levels: While integrated assessment models (e.g., EMF-38 and AR6 scenarios) project deployment of several gigatons per year by 2050, the actual installed DAC capacity in June 2025 remains below 0.05 MtCO2 /year. The paper concludes that while carbon capture remains a compelling field for innovation, the gap between scenario optimism and real-world progress has not closed. This is not the “fault” of the models, but these findings suggest that optimal technology deployment strategies might be more complex to implement than these models suggest.
Tag: Scenarios
Use and Abuse of Energy and Climate Scenarios—A Week of Controversy on Scenarios
Energy and climate scenarios, and all other scenarios, are controversial, because they touch strategic issues, and also affect very basic operational discussion, such as the choice of the fuel mix, or the degree of trading between companies and nations. This article documents a controversial exchange of ideas via email between the two opponents, about energy…
Long-term Energy and Climate Scenarios – An Introduction
This EEEP-symposium on “Long-term energy and climate scenarios” provides comprehensive coverage of the theory and practice of scenarios on energy and climate futures. The objective of this symposium is to contribute to the debate with a discussion of both, political economy aspects of scenario making, either positive and/or normative, but also on concrete scenarios on…
Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD
The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights. Still, challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights. In the case of energy system modelling, this becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and…
Projecting Energy and Climate for the 21st Century
The growing evidence of severe climate change impacts on human life and the global economy has created the increasing need for an assessment of low-carbon pathways. While the ultimate goal of zero- or near-zero global emissions is clear, the timing and trajectory to achieve low-carbon economic system is not. Projecting energy and climate is getting…
Can Bioenergy Assessments Deliver?
The role of biomass as a primary energy resource is highly debated. Next generation biofuels are suggested to be associated with low specific greenhouse gas emissions. But land consumption, demand for scarce water, competition with food production and harmful indirect land-use effects put a question mark over the beneficial effects of bioenergy deployment. In this…