How Incumbent Cultural and Cognitive Path Dependencies Constrain the ‘Scenario Cone’: Reliance on Carbon Dioxide Removal due to Techno-bias
Scenario analysis is widely used to assess long-term development necessary to reach climate targets. Mitigation measures in these scenarios concentrate on supply-side technology solutions, while little attention has been paid to demand side solutions. One suite of included technologies are carbon dioxide removal technologies (CDR). Most scenarios rely heavily on CDR to limit global warming…
Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD
The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights. Still, challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights. In the case of energy system modelling, this becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and…
Long-term Energy and Climate Scenarios – An Introduction
This EEEP-symposium on “Long-term energy and climate scenarios” provides comprehensive coverage of the theory and practice of scenarios on energy and climate futures. The objective of this symposium is to contribute to the debate with a discussion of both, political economy aspects of scenario making, either positive and/or normative, but also on concrete scenarios on…
Use and Abuse of Energy and Climate Scenarios—A Week of Controversy on Scenarios
Energy and climate scenarios, and all other scenarios, are controversial, because they touch strategic issues, and also affect very basic operational discussion, such as the choice of the fuel mix, or the degree of trading between companies and nations. This article documents a controversial exchange of ideas via email between the two opponents, about energy…
Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights
We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organizations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our paper provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature,…
Settling the metric selection debate for assessing the energy efficiency of energy-intensive industries
Cost Efficiency Evaluation of Thermal Power Plants in Bangladesh Using a Two-Stage DEA Model
The power sector in Bangladesh is based on fossil fuel based electricity generation. The recent increase in generation capacity in the country has been through the addition of power plants using higher cost imported fossil fuels, which have increased the overall cost of electricity. In this study, we aim to compare the cost efficiencies of…
Electricity Markets in the Resource-Rich Countries of the MENA: Adapting for the Transition Era
The Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) resource-rich economies are pursuing two parallel strategies in their electricity sectors: (i) increasing and integrating renewables into their power generation mix to mitigate the impact of rising domestic oil and gas demand on their economies and boost hydrocarbon export capacities; and (ii) undertaking power sector reforms to attract…
Comparing Interstate Regulation and Investment in US Gas and Electric Transmission
The interstate electric and natural gas sectors in the United States share some common regulatory elements, although the simpler economics of network expansion in gas pipelines allow the industry to operate on a contract-based framework that would be highly inefficient in electric transmission. The strong incentives for new pipeline development have allowed new gas pipeline…