Energy and climate scenarios, and all other scenarios, are controversial, because they touch strategic issues, and also affect very basic operational discussion, such as the choice of the fuel mix, or the degree of trading between companies and nations. This article documents a controversial exchange of ideas via email between the two opponents, about energy…
Energy Outlooks Compared: Global and Regional Insights
We compare prominent global energy scenarios of organizations and companies. We supplement the analysis with four own scenarios, which were derived from structured analytic techniques in combination with a numerical global energy and resource market model (Multimod). Our paper provides three central contributions: (i) a compact survey of selected outlooks with meta characteristics (conceptual nature,…
Settling the metric selection debate for assessing the energy efficiency of energy-intensive industries
This study evaluates energy efficiency in India’s energy-intensive industries using Total-Factor Energy Efficiency (TFEE), contrasting it with the traditional Single-Factor Energy Efficiency (SFEE) approach. Analyzing panel data from 2003–04 to 2021–22 from the Prowess database, we applied Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), including the input-oriented Slack-based method with variable returns to scale, to assess attainable energy…
Cost Efficiency Evaluation of Thermal Power Plants in Bangladesh Using a Two-Stage DEA Model
The power sector in Bangladesh is based on fossil fuel based electricity generation. The recent increase in generation capacity in the country has been through the addition of power plants using higher cost imported fossil fuels, which have increased the overall cost of electricity. In this study, we aim to compare the cost efficiencies of…
Electricity Markets in the Resource-Rich Countries of the MENA: Adapting for the Transition Era
The Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) resource-rich economies are pursuing two parallel strategies in their electricity sectors: (i) increasing and integrating renewables into their power generation mix to mitigate the impact of rising domestic oil and gas demand on their economies and boost hydrocarbon export capacities; and (ii) undertaking power sector reforms to attract…
Comparing Interstate Regulation and Investment in US Gas and Electric Transmission
The interstate electric and natural gas sectors in the United States share some common regulatory elements, although the simpler economics of network expansion in gas pipelines allow the industry to operate on a contract-based framework that would be highly inefficient in electric transmission. The strong incentives for new pipeline development have allowed new gas pipeline…
Electricity demand response in Japan: Experimental evidence from a residential photovoltaic power-generation system
We report on a randomized controlled trial used to examine the effect of dynamic pricing when applied to households with rooftop photovoltaic (PV) power-generation systems. Using high-frequency data on household-level electricity use, PV generation, purchases, and sales, we find that critical peak pricing induced significant usage reductions of 3-4% among households with PV systems, a…
Energy Markets Under Stress: Some Reflections on Lessons From the 2021–2023 Energy Price Crisis in Europe
This paper examines the 2021–2023 energy crisis in Europe exacerbated by the energy consequences of the full-scale Russia—Ukraine war which began in February 2022. We show that this was an historically unprecedented price shock to both gas and electricity prices. We then draw on lessons from UK energy policy in World War Two to inform…
Electric Vehicles are Good, Actually
Electric vehicles are the primary alternative to transportation based on internal combustion engines and the most promising route to decarbonization of light- and medium-duty transportation systems. A transition to electric vehicles does face important challenges in terms of scaling of battery production, charging infrastructure, and grid coordination, which may make aggressive EV targets difficult to…
How Should We Think About Pricing Electricity in the Context of Potential Life-Threatening Weather Events?
This paper argues that in markets characterized by highly inelastic demand, such as markets for electricity, market-clearing can force some individuals—particularly those with limited financial resources—out of the market, subsequently exposing them to significant risk. In the particular case of abnormally cold temperatures, as with the Texas deep freeze, or particularly hot temperatures, as may…