In the framework of the Paris Agreement, the European Union (EU) will have to firmly set decarbonization targets to 2050. However, the viability on these targets is an ongoing discussion. The European Commission has made several propositions for energy and climate “roadmaps”. In this regard, this paper contributes by analyzing alternative pathways derived in a unique modelling process. As part of the SET-Nav project, we defined four pathways to a clean, secure and efficient energy system—taking different routes. Two key uncertainties shape the SET-Nav pathways: the level of cooperation (i.e. cooperation versus entrenchment) and the level of decentralization (i.e. decentralization versus path dependency). All four pathways achieve an 85-95% emissions reduction by 2050. We include a broad portfolio of options under distinct framework conditions by comprehensively analyzing all energy-consuming and energy-providing sectors as well as the general economic conditions. We do this by applying a unique suite of linked models developed in the SET-Nav project. By linking more than ten models, we overcome the traditional limitation of models that cover one single sector while at the same time having access to detail sectoral data and expertise. In this paper, we focus on the implications for the energy demand sectors (buildings, transport, and industry) and the electricity supply mix in Europe and compare our insights of the electricity sector to the scenarios of the recent European Commission (2018a) report “A clean Planet for all”.
Tag: Energy transition
Model-Based Evaluation of Decentralised Electricity Markets at Different Phases of the German Energy Transition
This paper investigates decentralised markets in the German electricity system, defined as markets in specific regions in which regional electricity demand is met primarily by regional generation and the remaining demand is met on a system-wide level in a second step. The research question is: What impact do the size of decentralised markets and the…
Socio-technical Inertia: Understanding the Barriers to Distributed Generation in Pakistan
In a bid to promote renewable energy, Pakistan issued net-metering regulations in 2015 that allowed for on-site solar and wind generation. However, five years on, overall growth in Distributed Generation (DG) remains insignificant. Here we investigate the reasons why, focusing on solar prosumage and exploring the key barriers and challenges in the existing socio-technical regime….
Mexico’s Energy Prospects: Gains from Renewable Sources Over A Fossil Fuel-Dominated Environment
Changing political conditions in Mexico threatens the future of clean energy in the country. A competitive electricity market and ambitious environmental goals were among the priorities of the previous administration, but the current administration aims to increase revenues from the national power company and acquire control of the electricity market at the expense of consumer…
Electricity Markets in the Resource-Rich Countries of the MENA: Adapting for the Transition Era
The Middle East and North Africa’s (MENA) resource-rich economies are pursuing two parallel strategies in their electricity sectors: (i) increasing and integrating renewables into their power generation mix to mitigate the impact of rising domestic oil and gas demand on their economies and boost hydrocarbon export capacities; and (ii) undertaking power sector reforms to attract…
Lessons from Modeling 100% Renewable Scenarios Using GENeSYS-MOD
The main aim of models has never been to provide numbers, but insights. Still, challenges prevail for modelers to use the best configuration of their models to provide helpful insights. In the case of energy system modelling, this becomes even more complicated due to increasing complexity of the energy system transition through the potential and…
Are Credit Rating Agencies Punishing Petrostates for Energy Transition Risks?
The energy transition is expected to leave fossil fuel producers with weakened economies and stranded assets, but the time horizon of these effects is uncertain. This article offers a window into these effects by studying the sovereign credit ratings of petrostates. Credit ratings are both forward-looking indicators of their economic outlook and determinants of petrostates’…
Towards a general “Europeanization” of EU Member States’ energy policies?
It is often argued that energy policy is too fragmented across EU Member States and should be “Europeanized” to pave the way towards an efficiently organized European power system, which rests on the internal market for energy and a pan-European super-grid. However, this view neglects i) the heterogeneity of European energy policies in terms of…
Projecting Energy and Climate for the 21st Century
The growing evidence of severe climate change impacts on human life and the global economy has created the increasing need for an assessment of low-carbon pathways. While the ultimate goal of zero- or near-zero global emissions is clear, the timing and trajectory to achieve low-carbon economic system is not. Projecting energy and climate is getting…