We investigate attempts by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to stabilize the price of oil during the past fifty years. We first develop a novel decomposition of shifts in global demand and non-OPEC supply. This decomposition provides a fresh perspective on the debate over the relative importance of demand versus supply factors as…
Tag: Oil
Are Credit Rating Agencies Punishing Petrostates for Energy Transition Risks?
The energy transition is expected to leave fossil fuel producers with weakened economies and stranded assets, but the time horizon of these effects is uncertain. This article offers a window into these effects by studying the sovereign credit ratings of petrostates. Credit ratings are both forward-looking indicators of their economic outlook and determinants of petrostates’…
The Economics of Sustainability: Causes and Consequences of Energy Market Transformation
The paper deals with the economics of sustainability associated with the transformation of energy markets. It emphasizes the interrelations between technical changes and energy markets and how in turn the resulting transformations alter the sustainability of economic systems that are dependent on these markets. It also explores how innovation (or the lack thereof) is intimately…
Cheap Money, Geopolitics and Supernormal Backwardation of the WTI Forward Curve
Financial speculators frequently trade in the most liquid short-tenor contracts. We study repeating patterns of sharply steepening slopes in the WTI forward curve to investigate whether, after controlling for macroeconomic variables, physical market fundamentals, and basic arbitrage, calendar spread behavior is partly explained by speculation related to assessed geopolitical risk. We estimate WTI forward curve…
The Oil Market to 2030–Implications for Investment and Policy
Oil is (an important) part of a larger global energy market, which is expected to see continued consumption growth (largely in emerging markets) and a continued shift toward natural gas and renewable forms of energy. While oil continues to lose market share, overall consumption and production are likely to continue growing— though more slowly than…